A group of top state economists is predicting that Kentucky’s financial picture won’t improve much this year.

The Consensus Forecasting Group predicted a nearly $161 million state budget shortfall for this year.

Western administrators will take the group’s estimate into account as they work on a budget recommendation to present to legislators, said Ann Mead, vice president for Finance and Administration, in an e-mail.

Western and all other state agencies must turn in a budget request by early November, said Greg Harkenrider, deputy executive director in the Governor’s Office for Economic Analysis.

Mead said Monday’s prediction shows that Kentucky is continuing to experience a weak economy.

Gov. Steve Beshear said in a written statement that, though there are “glimmers of hope in the national economy, the recovery for Kentucky — and many other states — will be slow.”

Beshear said in the statement that his administration has managed to cut $800 million from the state’s budget without raising taxes on working families while protecting education, health care and public safety.

But Beshear said in the statement that, in light of the forecasting group’s predictions, more adjustments must be made, including more efficient ways to spend state money.

Particularly challenging will be the loss of federal stimulus dollars in 2011, he said in the statement.

Data from the Council on Postsecondary Education shows that about $70 million in federal stimulus money from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 will be used this year for higher education in Kentucky.

Western will get about $5.4 million of that money, which is about 8 percent of the total money available, according to the data.

The stimulus money given to universities should put them in a better financial situation once the economy picks up again, Harkenrider said. He doesn’t know for sure when that will be, though.

Universities should try to be smart with their money, like all other state agencies, to prepare for the end of stimulus money, he said.

Beshear said he’s confident cooperation among legislators will allow Kentucky to move forward through tough financial times.

The forecasting group will meet again in December and give a clearer prediction of what the state’s finances look like going into the spring’s legislative session, Mead said.

The December report will be key to balancing the state budget by June 30, 2010, she said.