The mid-term election year is upon us, and the media so far has focused on the elections for the Senate and House of Representatives. But the races to watch this November have nothing to do with Congress.
Thirty-six states will be electing or re-electing governors.
Your average governor is unknown to voters outside his or her own state. But four of our last five presidents – Carter, Reagan, Clinton and Bush II – were governors before winning the Oval Office.
Not to mention that the six most heavily populated states- California, Texas, New York, Florida, Illinois and Pennsylvania- will be holding gubernatorial elections.
Two of those five outcomes are predictable. Governors Rick Perry, R-Texas, and Edward Rendell, D-Pa., have solid support from a majority of their constituents.
But New York is poised to switch gears, with Democratic state Attorney General Eliot Spitzer beating every potential Republican opponent in polls conducted by Quinnipiac University in December 2005.
Meanwhile, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, R-Calif., is on shaky ground with statewide approval ratings that have remained below 40 percent since May 2005, according to SurveyUSA.com.
His failure to convince California voters to support four ballot initiatives last November is another strong indication that Democrats may take back the governor’s mansion.
Democrats may also have a chance in Florida, where Republican Gov. Jeb Bush will be retiring after two terms in office. Members of both parties are still fighting over who will get their nominations.
None of this is to say the Democrats will be invincible. SurveyUSA.com finds that more than 50 percent of Illinois residents have disapproved of Democratic Gov. Rod Blagojevich’s performance since May 2005.
Blagojevich’s administration has been riddled with numerous scandals, and several prominent Illinois Republicans are lining up for the chance to contest him.
Republicans may also have a shot at defeating Michigan Democrat Jennifer Granholm, whose state has suffered significant economic problems, including higher-than-average unemployment.
Ohio will provide one of the most unpredictable races, as Republican Gov. Bob Taft decided to retire after it was discovered he had failed to disclose golf trips and gifts provided by lobbyists.
A member of a respected political family that includes former president William Howard Taft, Gov. Taft saw his family name tarnished after his popularity plunged to 18 percent, according to SurveyUSA.com.
However, the scandal has fallen almost entirely on Taft’s shoulders, and prominent Republicans who have steered clear of it are determined to keep their party in office.
But the most unpredictable of all may be the heavily red state of Alabama. Republican Gov. Bob Riley’s popularity plunged within his own party when his 2003 tax-restructuring plan was rejected by the voters who put him in office.
But a bigger problem for Riley is former Chief Justice of the Alabama Supreme Court Roy Moore, who made headlines nationwide in November 2003 for refusing to follow a federal judge’s order to remove a Ten Commandments monument from the state courthouse.
The incident eventually cost the chief justice his job, making him a hero to the Christian right. Moore has announced his candidacy for the Republican nomination.
Although it’s unlikely Moore will defeat Riley, whose active role in rebuilding areas in his state damaged by Hurricane Katrina gave him a much-needed boost in the polls, a large share of the vote in the primary could encourage Moore to run as a third-party candidate.
If that happens, the Republican vote could split and a Democrat could pull thorough with a win.
If Moore were to turn strongly religious voters against Riley in the primary but still lose the nomination, his disappointed followers might be inclined to stay home during the general election, draining support from Riley.
Alabama’s voters are not afraid to kick out an incumbent. In 1994, 1998 and 2002 the sitting governor got the boot.
After November’s elections are decided, the media’s attention will immediately shift to the 2008 presidential race. Depending on the results from this year’s gubernatorial races, there could be a few more faces in the running for the Oval Office.
William Ploch is a senior news/editorial journalism major from Louisville.
The opinions expressed in this commentary do not reflect the opinions of the Herald or the university
.